Fewer Jobs, Steady Homes: What the Market’s Telling Us

The Mortgage Gurus, Simi Valley

Job growth is slowing, but home values are holding firm. Learn what the latest numbers mean for your next move and why homeownership remains a smart investment.

Signs of Softening in the Job Market

The May Jobs Report may have looked decent at first glance, with 139,000 new jobs and a steady 4.2% unemployment rate. But a closer look tells a different story. Earlier months this year were all revised lower, which suggests that real job growth may be weaker than it seems.

One big red flag? The Household Survey, which is based on real people instead of modeling, showed 696,000 jobs lost. A large portion of those were full-time positions.

Here’s what else stands out:

  • Private sector hiring (ADP data) added only 37,000 jobs, well below expectations.

  • Large companies began cutting jobs.

  • Small businesses eliminated 13,000 roles.

  • Half of all tracked industries reported job losses.

As ADP’s chief economist noted, “hiring is losing momentum.” That’s reflected in the numbers, too. Average job gains dropped to 81,000 over 3 months compared to 139,000 over the past year.

The Mortgage Gurus, Simi Valley

1 to 1. That’s the New Ratio.

That’s a big shift from the 2 to 1 ratio we saw in 2022. With fewer openings and more competition, landing a job is getting tougher across the board.

Job Openings & Layoffs: A Mixed Bag

April brought a slight increase in job openings, rising to 7.39 million. Still, the hiring and quit rates remain near decade lows. That suggests workers lack the confidence to switch jobs, and employers aren’t rushing to grow their teams.

It’s worth noting that remote job listings often appear in multiple states, which can artificially inflate totals. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has dropped from over 2 to 1 in 2022 to just 1 to 1 today.

At the same time, unemployment numbers remain high:

  • Initial claims hit 247,000—the highest since October.

  • Continuing claims are still above 1.9 million.

  • Job cut announcements surged 50% year-over-year in May.

Bottom line: It’s getting harder to land and keep a job right now.

The Mortgage Gurus, Simi Valley

Why Homeownership Still Wins

Even with a shaky labor market, home values are holding steady. In April:

  • Cotality reported a 0.6% monthly and 2% annual price increase.

  • ICE data confirmed similar year-over-year gains.

  • Projections for May expect another 0.8% growth and a 4.3% appreciation over the next year.

Let’s do the math. A $500,000 home that appreciates by 4% adds $20,000 in value within a year. That’s real equity, and a smart hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

The Takeaway

While the job market shows signs of cooling, real estate continues to be a strong and reliable investment. If you’ve been unsure about your next move, now might be the time to think long-term.

Let’s Create a Plan That Works for You

Whether you’re ready to buy or just want to explore your options, we’re here to help you move forward with confidence.

Schedule a strategy call with The Mortgage Gurus today.

 

Housing and labor market insights summarized from recent reports and data shared by MBS Highway, as of May 2025.

Next
Next

Is the Housing Market Slowing Down?