Market Shifts in July: What It Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Homeowners
June’s market data is in, and the signals are mixed. Inflation ticked up, but not as sharply as feared. Builder confidence stayed low, and single-family construction slowed even as multi-family builds picked up. So what does all this mean for you?
Let’s break it down:
Consumer Inflation Rises in June, But Tariff Impact Is Less Than Expected
Prices increased slightly last month, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.3% and annual inflation rising to 2.7%. Energy and food costs nudged higher, but tariffs—while expected to drive prices up—had a more limited effect than predicted.
Even core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose only 0.2% for the month, holding at 2.9% year-over-year.
What this means: Inflation is climbing modestly, but not fast enough to spark panic. Housing-related costs, like rent and shelter, continue to weigh heavily in the index.
Wholesale Prices Show Even More Moderation
Producer inflation was flat in June, with core prices also holding steady. Annual producer inflation dropped to 2.3%, down from 2.7% in May. That’s the lowest rate since September.
What this means: This helps ease concern over future price hikes, and it suggests the Fed may be less pressured to raise rates again in the near term.
Builder Confidence Remains Low, But Shows a Slight Uptick
The National Association of Home Builders' confidence index ticked up slightly to 33—but it’s still far below the 50-point threshold for growth. Buyer traffic hit its lowest point since 2022.
What this means: Builders are still cautious. High interest rates and economic uncertainty are making it tough to commit to new projects.
Single-Family Construction Slows Again
While overall housing starts rose 4.6% in June, the bump came entirely from multi-family projects. Single-family housing starts fell by the same 4.6%.
Permits for new builds were also mixed: multi-family permits rose slightly, while single-family permits dropped 3.7%.
What this means: New homes aren’t being built fast enough to meet demand. This supports current home values and puts pressure on available inventory.
Retail and Jobs: A Mixed Picture
Retail spending rebounded in June, led by gains at car dealerships, restaurants, and clothing stores. But job data remained murky.
Unemployment claims dropped to 221,000 (a good sign), but continuing claims stayed above 1.9 million for the eighth straight week.
What this means: The labor market is still tight, and while people are spending more, many job seekers are struggling to land new roles quickly.
The Bottom Line
Despite some economic uncertainty, home values remain supported by strong demand and limited supply. Inflation is rising moderately, but not at a pace that’s derailing real estate momentum.
If you’re wondering how all of this affects your next move, whether that’s buying, refinancing, or investing, now’s the time to get clarity.
