Government Reopens, Fed Watches Data, And What It Means For Your Mortgage Plans

After a brief government shutdown, economic reports are finally starting to come back online. At the same time, fresh data from private companies is painting a more detailed picture of jobs, home values, and consumer spending.

If you are thinking about buying a home, refinancing, or just trying to understand where rates might go next, here is what you need to know and how it could impact you.

1. Government Reopens: Why These Reports Matter For Rates

During the shutdown, key economic reports were put on pause, including:

• Inflation data

• Jobs reports

• Retail sales

• New home sales

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Now that the government is open again, agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis are expected to release an updated schedule for these delayed reports.

Why this matters

The Federal Reserve has one more meeting scheduled this year, on December 9 and 10. Before they decide what to do with interest rates, they will be looking closely at:

• How quickly prices are rising (inflation)

• How strong or soft the job market is

• Whether consumers are still spending

The Fed is trying to slow inflation without hurting the labor market too much. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already said there is “no risk free path” here, and that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed.

Quick refresher: How the Fed influences mortgage rates

The Fed sets the Federal Funds Rate, which is the short term rate banks charge each other. It does not directly set mortgage rates, but it strongly influences them. Markets react to what the Fed does and what it signals about the future, which then moves mortgage-backed securities and, in turn, mortgage pricing.

For homebuyers and homeowners, this means upcoming data releases could sway expectations for the Fed and cause mortgage rates to move, even before any official decision is announced.

2. ADP Data Hints At Job Losses In Late October

ADP, a major payroll processing company, releases its own job reports based on real payroll data.

• Its monthly report showed private sector payrolls rising by 42,000 in October

• However, its newer weekly pay report tells a more cautious story: employers cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the last four weeks of October

What this could mean

The weekly numbers suggest that the job market slowed toward the end of October, even though the earlier monthly snapshot looked modestly positive.

While we are still waiting for the full official government jobs reports to catch up, ADP’s data gives the Fed and markets an early hint that hiring may be cooling.

For mortgage borrowers, softer job data can sometimes reduce pressure on the Fed to keep rates higher, but it also signals a slowing economy. The Fed will need to balance both sides when deciding what to do in December.

3. Home Values Are Picking Up Again

On the housing side, there is some encouraging news for homeowners and buyers.

ICE’s latest Mortgage Monitor found:

• Home prices rose 0.15 percent in October on a month over month, seasonally adjusted basis

• This is the strongest monthly gain since March

• Annual appreciation ticked up 0.9 percent, ending nine straight months of slower yearly growth

In other words, home price growth had been losing momentum for most of the year, but October showed signs of renewed strength.

What this means for homeowners and buyers

Recent projections from firms like CoreLogic and similar housing data providers point to home prices rising a little more than previously expected over the next year. Even a moderate pace of appreciation can have a real impact on your wealth.

For example, if you buy a 500,000 dollar home and it appreciates at 4 percent in one year, that is a 20,000 dollar increase in value. You still have to consider your mortgage payment, taxes, and maintenance, but this simple example shows why homeownership is often a key long term wealth building tool.

4. Retail Sales Rebound In October

Consumer spending is another big piece of the puzzle, and retailers saw a pickup in October.

According to the National Retail Federation:

• Retail sales bounced back after a decline in September

• Seven out of nine major retail categories posted gains

• Year over year growth was positive in most categories, led by digital products, clothing, and sporting goods

The government’s own retail sales report was delayed by the shutdown, so private sector data like this has been especially important.

Why the Fed cares

Consumer spending makes up a large share of the U.S. economy. If people keep spending, it can support growth but also keep upward pressure on prices. If spending cools too much, the Fed has to worry about the economy slowing down.

With the December meeting approaching, the Fed will be weighing retail trends, jobs data, and inflation reports together.

5. What All Of This Means If You Are Planning A Move

You do not need to become an economist to make a smart decision. Here is the practical takeaway if you are thinking about buying or refinancing:

• Rates may stay somewhat volatile. As each delayed report is released, markets could react quickly. This can cause mortgage rates to move up or down in short bursts.

• Waiting for the “perfect” rate can backfire. Trying to time the absolute bottom usually creates more stress than savings. A strong overall plan, including the right loan structure, usually matters more than catching the lowest possible weekly rate.

• Home values still trend higher over time. Even moderate appreciation can add up, especially if you plan to stay in the home for several years.

• Pre approval is still your best first step. In a shifting rate environment, having a fully reviewed pre approval gives you clarity on your budget and makes your offers stronger.

Thinking About Buying Or Refinancing? Let’s Talk Through Your Options

You do not have to interpret the Fed, economic reports, and housing data on your own. Our team at The Mortgage Gurus reviews this information for you and helps translate it into a clear plan for your situation.

Whether you are:

• Buying your first home

• Moving up or downsizing

• Exploring a refinance to improve cash flow

We can walk you through your numbers, explain how current market trends affect you, and help you choose the right strategy with confidence.

Ready to start your pre-approval or explore your refinance options?
Click the link below to begin your application, and one of our loan officers will reach out to you.